IN 2010 EXPORTS ARE RISING AND CONSUMER
CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN GROWING SLOWLY
The world economic recovery is proceeding better than expected, even if its intensity differs in the various regions of the globe: this is the summary of what emerges from the customary forecast depicted by the International Monetary Fund.
April's Outlook is more positive on the whole compared to a few months ago and we can therefore think that the world economy has started up again. The global GDP will, in fact, grow this year by 4.2%, one percentage point more than foreseen last October. The emerging economies, first and foremost India and China, will see the strongest growth, recording an increase in GDP of 6.3% in 2010 and 6.5% in 2011. The development in advanced countries will be less substantial, with growth rates settling at 2.3% for this year and 2.4% for 2011. As regards Europe, instead, the IMF predicts modest growth on which the profound crisis that has hit Greece will have a heavy impact.
Growth will not be uniform and will be conditioned above all by the critical moment that the labour market is going through. In the Eurozone unemployment will reach 10.5% in both 2010 and 2011; in this framework, Italy defends itself better with unemployment forecast at respectively 8.7% and 8.6%. As far as our country is concerned, the IMF predicts that growth will still be slow, recording an increase in GDP of 0.8% for 2010, growth that will settle at 1.2% next year. Prometeia's forecasts, after the record drops of GDP and world trade in 2009, express the first signs of recovery still underpinned by the exceptional economic policy measures taken to fight the recession and support demand. One year after hitting the bottom in 2009, the Italian economy is also starting to grow again in the wake of the world cycle.
GDP is expected to grow, even if at a modest rate and seesawing: the average growth for the year in course is around +0.8% and will build only in 2011, when it will touch 1%.
Prospects for trends in Piemonte's economy are also positive, which seems in line with the recovery of the national economy.
The scenario forecast by Prometeia seems encouraging, with a growth in GDP that will reach +0.9% this year, then touching +1.3% in the two year period of 2012-2013. After a rather critical period, the region's exports are also ready to take off: according to Prometeia the recovery will be strong in 2010 and will record a comforting +5.0%, a dynamic that will slow down slightly as of 2011 with growth of +3.8%, to then rise in 2012-2013 to an average annual rate of +3.9%.
Source: Unioncamere Piemonte, 154ª Indagine congiunturale sull'industria manifatturiera piemontese
Confidence is therefore returning to prevail amongst Piemonte's entrepreneurs. In fact, according to Unioncamere Piemonte's usual Indagine congiunturale sull'industria manifatturiera piemontese, in the first quarter of the year the entrepreneurs outline a forecast for the six months of April-December decidedly comforting, with the exception of employment, for which some critical points remain.
37% of the entrepreneurs interviewed stated that they expect new growth in industrial production, while only 25% forecast a decrease. Optimism also prevailed over pessimistic views regarding domestic and foreign demand. As far as orders from the domestic market are concerned, 33% of entrepreneurs expect a rise for the six months of April-September 2010, while 26% predict a fall. As regards foreign orders, the optimists, i.e. 30 entrepreneurs out of 100, were 11% more than the pessimists.
A negative view still dominates, instead, the prospects for employment, where the balance of opinion is -9%, in any case an improvement compared to the figures recorded in the last quarter of 2009.
The world economic recovery is proceeding better than expected, even if its intensity differs in the various regions of the globe: this is the summary of what emerges from the customary forecast depicted by the International Monetary Fund.
April's Outlook is more positive on the whole compared to a few months ago and we can therefore think that the world economy has started up again. The global GDP will, in fact, grow this year by 4.2%, one percentage point more than foreseen last October. The emerging economies, first and foremost India and China, will see the strongest growth, recording an increase in GDP of 6.3% in 2010 and 6.5% in 2011. The development in advanced countries will be less substantial, with growth rates settling at 2.3% for this year and 2.4% for 2011. As regards Europe, instead, the IMF predicts modest growth on which the profound crisis that has hit Greece will have a heavy impact.
Growth will not be uniform and will be conditioned above all by the critical moment that the labour market is going through. In the Eurozone unemployment will reach 10.5% in both 2010 and 2011; in this framework, Italy defends itself better with unemployment forecast at respectively 8.7% and 8.6%. As far as our country is concerned, the IMF predicts that growth will still be slow, recording an increase in GDP of 0.8% for 2010, growth that will settle at 1.2% next year. Prometeia's forecasts, after the record drops of GDP and world trade in 2009, express the first signs of recovery still underpinned by the exceptional economic policy measures taken to fight the recession and support demand. One year after hitting the bottom in 2009, the Italian economy is also starting to grow again in the wake of the world cycle.
GDP is expected to grow, even if at a modest rate and seesawing: the average growth for the year in course is around +0.8% and will build only in 2011, when it will touch 1%.
Prospects for trends in Piemonte's economy are also positive, which seems in line with the recovery of the national economy.
The scenario forecast by Prometeia seems encouraging, with a growth in GDP that will reach +0.9% this year, then touching +1.3% in the two year period of 2012-2013. After a rather critical period, the region's exports are also ready to take off: according to Prometeia the recovery will be strong in 2010 and will record a comforting +5.0%, a dynamic that will slow down slightly as of 2011 with growth of +3.8%, to then rise in 2012-2013 to an average annual rate of +3.9%.
| Increase | Stationary | Decrease | Balance | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | 37% | 38% | 25% |
12% |
| Employment | 7% | 77% | 16% | -9% |
| Domestic orders | 33% | 42% | 26% | 7% |
| Foreign orders | 30% | 52% | 19% | 11% |
| Sales prices | 18% | 63% | 19% | 0% |
Source: Unioncamere Piemonte, 154ª Indagine congiunturale sull'industria manifatturiera piemontese
Confidence is therefore returning to prevail amongst Piemonte's entrepreneurs. In fact, according to Unioncamere Piemonte's usual Indagine congiunturale sull'industria manifatturiera piemontese, in the first quarter of the year the entrepreneurs outline a forecast for the six months of April-December decidedly comforting, with the exception of employment, for which some critical points remain.
37% of the entrepreneurs interviewed stated that they expect new growth in industrial production, while only 25% forecast a decrease. Optimism also prevailed over pessimistic views regarding domestic and foreign demand. As far as orders from the domestic market are concerned, 33% of entrepreneurs expect a rise for the six months of April-September 2010, while 26% predict a fall. As regards foreign orders, the optimists, i.e. 30 entrepreneurs out of 100, were 11% more than the pessimists.
A negative view still dominates, instead, the prospects for employment, where the balance of opinion is -9%, in any case an improvement compared to the figures recorded in the last quarter of 2009.
